Hydropower: The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Challenge of Energy in the Horn of Africa
Introduction
La Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)with its 6,450 MW of power and a reservoir of 74 billion cubic metres of water, is the most ambitious hydroelectric project in Africa. Built on the Blue Nile, this infrastructure is not only a symbol of progress for Ethiopia, but a geopolitical node involving Egypt and Sudan in a complex game of energy development, water security and international diplomacy.
This article explores how the GERD could transform the energy supply of three countries, analysing economic opportunities, diplomatic tensions and environmental challenges. With data updated to 2025, we delve into the role of the dam in the future of the Horn of Africa.
Historical Context: From Ethiopian Dream to Reality
The Origins of the Project
GERD was established in 2011 as a response to Ethiopia's chronic energy shortage, where only 50% of the population had access to electricity. With an initial cost of USD 4.8 billion, financed through government bonds and donations from the diaspora, the dam aims to double national electricity production, turning Ethiopia into a regional energy hub.
Technical Specifications
- Dimensions155 metres high, 1,780 metres long, 74 km³ basin.
- Capacity16,153 GWh/year, enough to electrify 40 million households.
- BuildersItaly's Webuild (formerly Salini Impregilo) for the civil infrastructure; turbines supplied by Voith Hydro Shanghai and China Gezhouba Group.
Economic Impact: Energy for Development
Benefits for Ethiopia
- Energy self-sufficiencyGERD will cover the needs of 125 million Ethiopians, with surpluses to be exported to Sudan, Kenya and Djibouti.
- Industrial growthGDP is expected to increase by 10.2% per year, driven by irrigated agriculture and attraction of foreign investment.
Opportunities for Sudan and Egypt
- Flood control: In Sudan, the dam will reduce damage from seasonal floods, protecting 2 million hectares of agricultural land.
- Low-cost energySudan already has agreements to purchase 1,000 MW at a subsidised tariff, while Egypt is considering imports through regional networks.
Geopolitical Tensions: Water vs. National Security
The Egyptian Dilemma
Egypt depends on the Nile for 90% of its water resources, with a per capita availability of only 550 m³/year, well below the scarcity threshold. The rapid filling of the GERD (3 years according to Ethiopia vs. 7 requested by Egypt) risks reducing the river's flow by 25%, threatening agriculture and social stability.
Failed Agreements and Mediations
- Historical treatises: The 1929 and 1959 agreements, signed with Sudan and Britain, guaranteed Egypt 55.5 km³ of water annually, but excluded Ethiopia.
- International mediationsMediation attempts by the US, the World Bank and the African Union only produced non-binding agreements. In 2023, the unilateral filling of the dam exacerbated tensions.
The Role of Sudan
Sudan, initially an ally of Egypt, has veered towards more conciliatory positions with Ethiopia, attracted by the benefits in flood management and access to cheap energy. However, the civil war that broke out in 2023 between the al-Burhan and Hemedti factions risks further destabilising the negotiations.
Environmental Challenges and Innovative Solutions
Drought Risk and Climate Change
Egypt is already facing a water crisis: Minister Hani Swailem stated that available resources are half of what is needed, with desalination costs rising to USD 0.5/m³ 4. GERD adds to an already critical picture, with predictions of a 30% loss of agricultural production by 2040 due to global warming.
Adaptation Strategies
- Sustainable agriculture: Projects of Climate Smart Agriculture to reduce water wastage in the 40%.
- DesalinationThe Ain Sokhna plant, financed by Saudi Arabia, will produce 164,000 litres/day.
Future Perspectives: Collaboration or Conflict?
Optimistic Scenario: A Regional Energy Network
GERD could become the pillar of a pan-African power gridlinking Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt and other countries through theAfrican Continental Power System. This would require:
- Binding agreements on water management, under the auspices of the African Union.
- Investment in infrastructure transnational, such as the 2,000 MW Ethiopia-Sudan-Egypt (ESE) transmission line.
Critical Scenario: Military Escalation
Despite the peaceful tone, Egyptian President al-Sisi called GERD 'a national security issue' in 2024, hinting at the possibility of military intervention if water flows were compromised.
A Crossroads for the Horn of Africa
GERD is not just a dam, but a tests for international cooperation. As emphasised by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed: "The water of the Nile is enough for everyone, if managed wisely". .
For this to happen, they are needed:
- Transparent dialogueOvercoming historical vetoes and adopting fair-sharing mechanisms.
- Green technology: Integrating solutions such as desalination and precision agriculture.
- Global supportInvolving bodies such as the UN and the World Bank in climate mitigation projects.
Advice for:
- Investors: Support hybrid projects (hydro + solar) to balance energy production and water security.
- GovernmentsSigning a Nile Basin Compact including all 11 countries in the basin.
- CitizensPromoting awareness-raising campaigns on the responsible use of water.
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